Almost no one predicted the surprisingly strong 2019 year-to-date returns for stocks and bonds. The stock market is currently indifferent about a trade war or recession, while declining long-term bond yields indicate the bond market takes a different view.Most things investors worry about are not really important. What is important are the four “deep risks.”
Stocks retreated in May while bond yields fell to new lows for the year. After several months of optimism for a trade deal, the US and China appear no closer to reaching a deal than they were at the end of last year. With revamped trade tensions at the forefront, global stocks retreated 5.9%.