October’s Rebound
In a year of already strong gains for global stocks, October was another record-setting month. In particular, the S&P 500 reached a record high and finished the month up 7%. October marks the biggest gain for the index since last November when stocks jumped in the wake of the U.S. election and news of vaccines. Consumer discretionary and energy stocks were the highest returning economic sectors.
Relationship Problems
September ended a run of steady gains for stocks. In a turbulent month, global stocks dipped 5% after reaching another record high early in the month. Investors were lulled by seven months of steady gains. While well within the historical norm, September’s pullback feels jarring after a period of calm.
Wall Street’s Wall of Worry
Stocks remain stoic, grinding steady gains through the summer.
Despite rising infections due to the delta variant, geopolitical concerns, inflationary pressures, and supply chain bottlenecks, stocks continued their unrelenting march to record highs.
Records are Meant to be Broken
Michael Phelps is arguably the best modern-day Olympian. No other athlete comes close to his record of winning twenty-eight medals over five Olympic games. Twenty-three of those twenty-eight medals were gold. In his career, Phelps set thirty-nine world records. But today, only four of those records still stand! It is astonishing that such a revered swimmer saw most of his world records beaten within five years of retirement. As the saying goes, records are meant to be broken.
Recovery Mode
The first half of the year started on solid footing. A rapidly recovering economy and strong gains in stocks boosted investor euphoria. After such a swift recovery in financial markets, the challenge now is staying grounded in your investment strategy when it feels like everyone else has lost theirs.
Bitcoin - It’s a Hustle, Right?
It may have been a joke about dogecoin, but Elon Musk cut to the bone on cryptocurrencies in his Saturday Night Live debut. No one seemed to know enough about dogecoin to make any sense describing it. Falling 40% following the quip, it seems investors also lacked the stomach for the parody coin.
Under Pressure
A year ago, business owners struggled to find enough demand for what they sold. Now, everything is flying off the shelf, and they cannot hire fast enough. Such is the yin and yang of this strange economy recovering from a health crisis.
Tax Changes May Be Coming: How it May Impact You
The Biden administration has rolled out a three-part fiscal agenda, dubbed “Build Back Better.” The agenda emphasizes COVID-19 relief and investments in infrastructure, education, childcare, and paid family leave, among others.
Good Surprises
Global stocks gained over 9% in the first four months of 2021. After such a strong recovery at the end of 2020, few expected such gains to continue this year.
A Wild Trip
A year ago, what had been a localized virus in a distant place spread across the world. Prior viral outbreaks – SARS, Ebola, Zika - never spread as feared. However, this one ended up being different. The world has certainly changed in the last twelve months, and the financial markets have shown they remain resilient to new challenges.
Bonds: Then and Now
Interest rates have risen to start the year. After the yield on the 10-year Treasury reached a nadir of 0.5% basis points during the depths of the pandemic, it recently touched 1.5% - a level not seen since February of 2020.
Inflation Headache
After January’s exciting finish amidst the GameStop saga, February felt like a return to some sort of normalcy. Investors turned away from the Reddit-fueled trading frenzy as they shifted towards common themes throughout the COVID-19 pandemic: economic recovery and vaccine distribution.
Reddit Rebellion
Following a bizarre year, 2021 is attempting to outdo its predecessor. January might as well have been the 13th month of 2020. Between a Senate runoff in Georgia, an unsettling insurrection in Washington, and a social-distanced Presidential inauguration, there was a lot to focus on. But none of these events captivated market-watchers like the frenzied trading in GameStop.
A Look at Cold Hard Cash
Money in a bank account isn’t earning much these days. In fact, cash has barely outpaced inflation since 1926. History suggests that today’s low return prospects for cash are not all that different from the returns of the past century.
The 2020 Stress Test
2020 could not end quickly enough. What else can we say about a year that brought a public health tragedy so deadly and devastating that it seems like an unending bad dream? On top of the pandemic, there was deep social unrest and a divisive, extra-contentious election that seemed to throw a wet blanket on everything.
2021 Tax and Planning Update
2020 turned out to be a much better year in the financial markets than most anyone anticipated, with both stocks and bonds producing solid returns. While interest, dividends and capital appreciation are the obvious components of good returns, it’s also important to not give up too much to taxes. As a matter of course, we focus on tax loss harvesting and manageable portfolio turnover. Here are some additional considerations as you plan for the upcoming year.
Brave New World
As a COVID-19 pandemic continued to surge, the stock market put in one of its best months on record. Investors are encouraged by positive news on the efficacy of several vaccines and looking ahead to a return to more normal economic activity.
Political Y2K?
On many accounts, tomorrow’s presidential election will be one for the history books. With the nation feeling exceptionally polarized and anxiety on both sides of the aisle elevated, you are not alone in worrying about what may come next and how it could impact your portfolio.
October Surprise
As if 2020 wasn't already full of shocking twists and turns, news of President Trump's COVID-19 infection added another unexpected development in a bizarre year. It's anyone's guess what the next curveball may be. Surviving the potential ups and downs of the next weeks and months rests not on an ability to predict the future, but on solid planning built to weather whatever the world sends our way.
What’s Next for Interest Rates?
This year, the yield on a 10-Year Treasury bond reached a new all-time record low of 0.50%. In 1980, the same bond yielded 15%. The secular decline in interest rates provided a tailwind to bond performance over the last 40 years. For most baby boomers and following generations, yields have declined for most of their working life. Now that bond yields have approached zero, have we finally reached the end of this ride? That may be the wrong question.
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